3/23/2023 0 Comments Avowed steamStill behind Sony & Nintendo, but at least more competitively so, instead of it being a complete blowout. If they can do that and have a clear, sizable release schedule for 2024, I think they'll be "fine". They can still remain in the mix at least in US & UK and some of their other global markets IF Starfield is a big success and makes an impact, all the promised games for 2022 actually release and are both quality and have some impact, and maybe they get another of the big 1P games out this year besides RedFall (will probably underperform) and Forza (doesn't do much to move the needle), like Avowed or Hellblade II. This really could be their Sega Saturn generation if you know what I mean. With PS5 steamrolling ahead and Switch still holding strong, plus the real possibility Nintendo's bringing the Switch 2 early next year (or who knows, maybe even later this year!), MS are going to find themselves boxed out of the market for more or less the rest of the generation. Of course some of that will be captured in net new gamepass users as well, but I think you can get the idea that it'll be very hard for this game by itelf to move the needle.Ĭould potentially decline? They're already declining they would have to do everything you suggested just to prevent further decline. now how many of these are going to be net new users who are just buying the console for the first time. so now you're looking at 11.25 to 15 million buying the game. Now maybe half of those are going to be GamePass. That gives you 22.5 million to 30 million on Xbox. When you take into account the percentage of these that will play on PC rather than console, it's probably at least 25% PC and I'm being generously conservative here. the number is crazy, like 30-40 million (and that would make it bigger than Skyrim which was multiplatform across multiple generations). When you think about the number of people who will need to play Starfield for it to be a success. Microsoft's entire model is cannibalistic and it's starting to bite them. I'm not sure how well it will do with numbers. With it being available on GamePass and specifically GamePass PC. Original IP is almost never a system seller. The reality is that most people who know what Starfield even is and want it on console, already have an Xbox. There is this idea that Starfield as new IP is going to move units. I told people 2023 was going to be a rough year for Xbox and 2024 might be a barren year.
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